Oscar Predictions

RYAN: Ok, when do the Oscar nominations come out?

CAROLINE: Yael, they’re in four days.

RYAN: No!

CAROLINE: Cause for celebration.

RYAN: I can hardly stand it.

CAROLINE: I really can’t. I’m gonna get up and take notes when they make the announcements, as I do every year.

RYAN: Ok. You’re a nerd. But I, too, am so essited, I’m excited, without the x.

CAROLINE: (laughs)

RYAN: Well we can help pass the time by doing a couple of things. First, let’s list our personal favorite movies of 2005. And then let’s predict who we think the Academy will nominate in the important categories.

CAROLINE: I like it a lot.

RYAN: So let me begin by telling you, my dear, what my favorite film of the year was. And it’s not to say I think it was the best film, but it was definitely, true to myself, my favorite film… “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.”

CAROLINE: Yael, I’m shocked!

RYAN: I know. I know. If you know me, you know I am the biggest Harry Potter fan over the age of five.

CAROLINE: Indeed.

RYAN: What was your favorite movie?

CAROLINE: I’ll have to say “The New World,” in terms of something I thoroughly loved. But I’d like to do a top three, because at the end of the year, I felt like I looooved “The New World.” I looooved “Walk the Line.” And going back a little earlier, I really liked “Crash,” even though the message hit you over the head. But it was really interesting and a good look at racism.

RYAN: Certainly. I agree. It’s in my top three as well. Favorite film aside, my top three movies of 2005 are “Crash,” “Memoirs of a Geisha,” and I’m gonna say it. Don’t stone me. “Rent.”

CAROLINE: I loved “Rent.” And I won’t stone you.

RYAN: A lot of people hated it but I loved it.

CAROLINE: It’s very good.

RYAN: I was actually let down that “The Producers” got all the Golden Globe nominations and “Rent” didn’t get even one. And the performances were so good. I know some folks take issue with director Chris Columbus, but the performances…

CAROLINE: It was a great movie. If I broaden it and mention the other movies I loved in 2005, I would definitely say “Rent.” I would say “The 40-Year-Old Virgin.” “Mr. & Mrs. Smith.” That’s right, you heard me. I loved it. In terms of romantic comedies, I loved “Hitch.” “North Country.”

RYAN: Shirley.

CAROLINE: And I liked the movie “Derailed” a lot because of all the twists. I remember seeing it with you and gripping you the entire time.

RYAN: Please. You bruised me.

CAROLINE: Everyone thought Jeni Ani sucked in it and I don’t care. I loved it and Clive Owen is hot. And finally my documentary favorite was “Grizzly Man.”

RYAN: Oh yes! Loved! I had no interest in it but ended up liking it better than even “March of the Penguins.” Thank you for dragging me to it. That’s how you’ll feel after I take you to see “Nanny McPhee.”

CAROLINE: (laughs) I doubt it.

RYAN: I also loved those movies and also “Junebug,” “Narnia,” “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” and my favorite animated movie of the year… “Howl’s Moving Castle.” You didn’t see it.

CAROLINE: I couldn’t even tell you what it’s about, but I’m thrilled for you.

RYAN: It was so cool. Witchy scary and romantic and perfect for a single gay man in his 30s. But the one film I would leave off the list is “Bewtiched.”

CAROLINE: I kinda liked it. Nicole Kidman reminded me of Meg Ryan circa “Sleepless in Seattle.”

RYAN: Mmm Hmm. (eats a carrot) I shouldn’t be eating while we’re blogging.

CAROLINE: Ok. Oscars.

RYAN: (chewing) Let’s predict who we think the Academy will nominate.

CAROLINE: I’d like the record to show this is not…

RYAN: (coughs hysterically) I just inhaled a piece of carrot!!! (coughing)

CAROLINE: Ryan! Are you ok?

RYAN: (coughing) Dying!

CAROLINE: (laughs)

RYAN: (hacking) Thanks for laughing you b****.

CAROLINE: No. When someone’s coughing while choking, it means they’re fine. You can get air.

RYAN: (coughing) Do you know what it feels like to have a piece of carrot in your lungs?

CAROLINE: I do.

RYAN: (hacks) What? Will it just eventually absorb into my lungs? Where does it go?

CAROLINE: Hopefully it will work its way down.

RYAN: Down to where? Are the lungs attached to the stomach?

CAROLINE: It’s probably in the wrong pipe.

RYAN: I’m telling you. It’s in my lung. I inhaled the s***. I knew I shouldn’t have been eating whilst blogging!

(collective laughter and coughing)

CAROLINE: Back to the Oscars…. Here are our predictions for who the Academy will choose. Best Picture: “Brokeback Mountain,” “Match Point,” “Walk the Line,” “Good Night and Good Luck,” and I’m saying “Munich,” skeptically.

RYAN: Ok. I agree with you. But I wasn’t really listening to what you just said so here’s what I think. “Brokeback Mountain,” “Walk the Line,” “Crash,” “Constant Gardener” and “Munich.” I really don’t think it’s going to be “Match Point,” because although Woody Allen’s camp placed a brilliant Oscar campaign, calling it a “fresh Woody Allen,” he’s still past time prime/time and I don’t think it’ll get the nom.

CAROLINE: All right. Director?

RYAN: We don’t even need to mention nominees… we can tell you who will win the award. Ang Lee for “Brokeback Mountain.” Ok. Actress? The most important award, since it’s the only one they get emotional about.

CAROLINE: Unless it’s Reese Witherspoon.

RYAN: Right. Stone Cold Reese Witherspoon.

CAROLINE: Ok. Felicity Huffman, “Transamerica,” Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line,” Charlize Theron, “North Country,” Keira Knightley, “Pride & Predjudice.” And Ziyi Zhang, “Memoirs of a Geisha.” Felicity has the best chance and she’ll bawl her eyes out.

RYAN: And the next day she’ll take the statue to the set of “Desperate Housewives” and choke Teri Hatcher with it.

CAROLINE: Ok. Actor.

RYAN: Heather Ledger, “Brokeback Mountain,” Joaquin Phoenix, “Walk the Line,” and Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote.” Those are the only definite nominations. Who else might make it? No one else will win it.

CAROLINE: But other nominees would be David Strathairn, “Good Night and Good Luck” and Russell Crowe, “Cinderella Man.”

RYAN: Yeah. I wish Ralph Fiennes for “Constant Gardener.”

CAROLINE: And we have to give props to Amy Adams. I would love to her her get nominated for Best Supporting Actress, “Junebug.”

RYAN: Yes. I think she was the single best performance of the year. Anyway, this was fun. We will watch the Oscars.

CAROLINE: I believe March 5th.

RYAN: Be sure to check back here to see exactly what you’d be thinking yourself, but nobody else would say.

CAROLINE: And if there are any shocking nominations, we’ll be sure to comment immediately, if not sooner.